Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 8.622904 10.155262 11.844558 13.840014 16.127433 18.662138 21.677911
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 6.256898 8.212683 10.575339 13.619319 17.414534 21.966038 27.810694
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 4.924556 7.092033 9.920744 13.836640 19.063128 25.737846 34.835569
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.938237 6.161389 9.267607 13.844301 20.318238 29.034246 41.515534
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 3.227510 5.443761 8.736046 13.861971 21.489554 32.235649 48.283441
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.568110 4.658146 7.950498 13.350460 21.773926 34.147429 53.345178
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.164416 4.193356 7.562346 13.349035 22.756493 37.084608 60.056202
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.839135 3.794292 7.206513 13.325708 23.660790 39.931659 66.806233
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.692614 3.686482 7.317650 14.071508 25.849328 44.908830 77.172249
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.544143 3.545403 7.343179 14.658101 27.807628 49.645718 87.472690
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.425622 3.440877 7.415935 15.325411 29.947941 54.816333 98.804785
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.242131 3.165356 7.120551 15.269191 30.788831 57.852454 106.787463
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.021209 2.768928 6.537125 14.609435 30.500633 58.988728 111.755646
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.848105 2.445455 6.053133 14.080501 30.394946 60.425068 117.336716
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.750702 2.284776 5.892531 14.187253 31.511027 64.123220 127.135887
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.656840 2.112279 5.677927 14.149267 32.328171 67.317994 136.223100
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.578316 1.963003 5.492985 14.149280 33.213632 70.690773 145.835726
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.482656 1.741593 5.097461 13.621536 32.940113 71.806367 151.283157
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.426242 1.622643 4.937799 13.617396 33.775584 75.135909 161.128749
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.376235 1.511048 4.778697 13.592598 34.557749 78.402902 171.037766
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.362412 1.515264 4.931337 14.351126 37.155142 85.517817 188.902210
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.343047 1.496105 5.016352 14.947822 39.430501 92.104308 206.063682
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.327512 1.487050 5.128760 15.626689 41.949726 99.347980 224.924161